Articles

Spring has a habit of keeping investors on their toes. After last April’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs from President Trump, which proved to be the most significant market event of 2025, this year the outbreak of war in the Middle East involving Iran, the US and Israel is showing signs of being similarly impactful.

While the humanitarian consequences of course take priority, we are also faced with great uncertainty around global energy supply and the resultant market volatility. As we go to press with this edition of the House Report, markets have rebounded with the same resilience we saw last year, though a prolonged conflict would no doubt dampen this apparent optimism.

In his overview of global markets this quarter, Guy Monson argues that today’s energy crisis is not like earlier oil shocks. While the disruption is severe, it is, to some extent, being absorbed by a global economy that is less energy-intensive than before. This is being underpinned by fiscal expansion and continued enthusiasm for AI-led investing.

A longer-term perspective, explored in this edition by our Climate Analyst, Ben McEwen, suggests that the more durable winners from an energy crisis are in fact the companies helping to drive the transition away from traditional energy sources. Investment in clean energy has surged in recent years, and this trend is unlikely to slow any time soon.

Also in this edition, our economist team take a look at AI from a different perspective: how is this revolution reshaping the economic landscape? Investors may be entering not just a new technology cycle, but a different capital environment altogether.