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Short-term activity data is going to look very healthy in terms of month-to-month growth thanks to continued easing and shops beginning to reopen.

If ever there were something to illustrate that the gradual easing of lockdown measures leaves us far from what could be described as normal, it has been the odd experience of watching live coverage of football matches being played in empty stadia. Usually this only happens to clubs who have been sanctioned for crowd disturbances, for example. Test match cricket will also resume next month, although followers of the County Championship will be more used to the thwack of willow on leather reverberating around spectatorless stands. Even so, the resumption of hostilities on the field represents another step in the right direction for the economy.

Last week, in England at least, many non-essential shops opened their doors again, although, to judge by the queues, certain brands of luxury handbag are entirely essential. There is rising optimism within the hospitality industry that the two-metre rule for social distancing will be eased this week ahead of the next stage of re-opening. What all of this means is that short-term activity data is going to look very healthy in terms of month-to-month growth. Not only are we going to have suffered the deepest recession in modern history, but also, in all probability, the shortest. However, that rather underplays the fact that actual economic activity will remain well below previous levels for some time to come.

In this commentary John Wyn-Evans, Investec Wealth & Investment’s Head of Investment Strategy, provides insight on future economic growth in relation to current indexes, views from institutional fund managers and investment bank strategists, as well as the impact of new Covid outbreaks in China and Germany. Read full article here.