Articles

As we begin 2026, almost a year into President Trump’s second term, the once isolationist America First agenda has evolved into a form of unpredictable unilateralism with wide-reaching consequences.

Over the past 12 months, the US has launched military action in Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen, while the new year has already brought regime change in Venezuela and talk of a potential acquisition of Greenland.

And yet, despite the uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tension, risk assets have continued to rally. Global equity markets have posted new highs, credit spreads are near historic lows, and gold has surged by 70% over the past 12 months. As we return to our desks after the Christmas break, the question is whether the resilience shown by global investors can continue into the new year.

As Guy Monson explains in his contribution this quarter, significant risks remain in addition to the political backdrop – not least the high valuations of AI beneficiaries and the risk of a delay in the pay-back on the investment boom in data-centre construction. However, with strong global earnings forecasts providing fundamental support,

Guy outlines what the team sees as five key opportunities for global investors in 2026.

Thorough analysis of market regimes which exist over decades helps us as investors to map out the investment landscape and create a solid framework for long-term thematic investing. Subitha Subramaniam’s article sets out our approach to regimes and takes us through the six economic regimes which have shaped markets, inflation, interest rates and investment themes since the end of the Second World War. As we transition into an era we define as Global Fragmentation, Subitha examines the implications for asset allocation and investment selection.

Elsewhere, Richard Maitland addresses the issue that while the quality and breadth of investment service available to charities has increased over the years, the entry of advisers without charity experience into the market makes the need for careful due diligence and scrutiny more critical than ever.

The AI narrative continues to dominate markets. Adam Hamilton takes a step back to look at the long-term picture – how the technology has evolved over the decades, and how AI is best understood not as a single technological event, but as a long, capital-intensive economic transition. Patience will be needed

as heavy up-front investment is required before productivity gains materialise, but growth and opportunity will exist throughout the journey.

In our Stewardship Focus this quarter, Sian Jones talks us through the publication of our Human and Labour Rights Policy, reflecting a clear framework and engagement approach on social issues. We also highlight some examples how we have been engaging with companies in this important area.

Rounding off this edition, we take a fresh look at the financials sector in light of recent initiatives to loosen banking regulation. We offer two perspectives – across both fixed income and equities –

from Artemis Vrahimis and Eoin Mullany. We hope you find our insights useful and, as ever, we welcome your

feedback and suggestions for future topics.